June 11, 2009

Tell Us the Future. Then Again, Don’t.

No artigo Tell Us the Future. Then Again, Don’t. Ben Stein coloca pontos importantes relacionado a previsão futura.
But the fact is that we as humans cannot tell the future. It does not matter whether you are Mr. Cramer or if you are Warren Buffett, an off-the-charts genius on a scale rarely seen. It does not matter if you are Milton Friedman or Paul Samuelson or James Tobin, all Nobel laureates. Human beings cannot tell the future, or at least cannot tell it in any consistent way.
Humans can’t consistently pick the right stocks or call markets, foretell political or geopolitical events or successfully predict changes in interest rates or commodity prices.
Com esta leitura fica cada vez mais nítida e clara que as chances (de sucesso no longo prazo) estão em reagir ao movimento do preço ao invés de tentar prever um futuro que não existe.